The real estate industry’s obsession with aggregate market data is leading to fundamentally flawed analysis of Miami’s luxury market, according to a veteran agent who has spent over two decades navigating South Florida’s complex property landscape.
Joelle Oiknine, a Senior Global Real Estate Advisor at One Sotheby’s International Realty, emphasizes that Miami’s real estate market cannot be understood as a single, uniform entity. Different price segments, neighborhoods, and even individual buildings perform very differently, making broad, aggregate metrics misleading. According to Oiknine, Miami Dade, Broward, and Florida as a whole each encompass multiple submarkets, and accurate analysis requires attention to price ranges, specific areas, and building-level dynamics.
The Price Point Divide Creates Different Markets
Oiknine notes that the commonly cited 19 months of inventory, often used to indicate a buyer’s market, does not reflect the full complexity of Miami’s luxury market. In the $1-5 million range, high inventory largely reflects post-crash issues in older buildings, where deferred maintenance and new regulatory requirements – heightened after the Surfside collapse – have led to costly assessments. Some current owners cannot afford these fees, while new buyers are willing to purchase lower-priced units and cover the assessments, creating a submarket distinct from the broader trends.
In contrast, the ultra-luxury segment follows different patterns. Properties priced between $5 million and $10 million see relatively lower inventory, and the market for units above $10 million remains active, driven by affluent buyers, often business owners, who are less constrained by market pressures affecting lower-priced segments.
Cash Buyers Insulate Ultra-Luxury from Traditional Metrics
The segmentation becomes even more pronounced when examining buyer profiles and financing patterns. Oiknine reports that “99% of our deals are cash” in the higher price ranges, fundamentally altering how these properties respond to interest rate changes and lending conditions that affect lower-priced segments.
Oiknine explains that buyers in the ultra-luxury tier are largely insulated from the financial pressures that affect other segments. High-net-worth purchasers are typically unfazed by special assessments, and because most newer, high-priced buildings have already addressed major maintenance requirements, these costs are far less common at the top end of the market.
She adds that this segment operates under a fundamentally different financial structure: the overwhelming majority of transactions are all-cash – roughly 90% in certain price brackets. This lack of leverage means today’s luxury buyers are not vulnerable to the kinds of financing risks that contributed to the 2008 downturn, making traditional recession indicators far less relevant to Miami’s highest-end properties.
Building-Specific Analysis Reveals Hidden Opportunities
Oiknine notes that ultra-luxury buyers are largely unaffected by special assessments or financing conditions, since most high-end transactions are cash. Newer buildings in this segment typically avoid major repair assessments altogether, further reducing financial pressure on buyers. Because roughly 90% of purchases at the top of the market do not rely on loans, she argues that this segment behaves very differently from 2008, when many owners were overleveraged and more vulnerable to market downturns.
Beyond broad price categories, Oiknine emphasizes that individual buildings can have their own momentum. She points out that some developments in Bal Harbour continue to see steady sales despite six-figure assessments. Ultra-premium buildings – especially those tied to star architects or exceptional locations – are performing particularly well, with units now trading around $4,000 to $5,000 per square foot. Many of these properties originally sold in preconstruction for roughly half that price, illustrating how architectural pedigree and brand positioning can create resilient micro-markets.
Industry Implications for Developers and Analysts
Oiknine’s segmentation thesis suggests that developers and market analysts who rely on aggregate Miami data may be making costly strategic errors. Her observation that “there’s one building that I sold in 60 Zaha Hadid in downtown Miami, 1000 Museum. That one, because it has a star architect and a big name. That one increased in price” points to how brand and design can override broader market conditions.
Developers are also shifting their strategies in response to these segmented market dynamics. Oiknine notes that areas near downtown Miami, which once featured more moderately priced inventory, are now seeing a surge in ultra-luxury construction. Instead of projects priced in the mid–six figures to around $2 million, builders are increasingly delivering properties in the $5 million to $15 million range, signaling a decisive pivot toward high-end demand in neighborhoods that previously catered to lower price brackets.
A Framework for Understanding Miami’s True Conditions
Rather than dismissing Miami’s luxury market based on aggregate inventory numbers, Oiknine’s approach suggests a more nuanced framework. Her team’s success in “both” price ranges – from assessment-burdened older buildings to ultra-luxury trophy properties – demonstrates the value of building-specific, price-point-specific analysis.
One Sotheby’s International Realty has built its strategy around this granular approach, offering ongoing training, courses, and marketing tools that reflect Miami’s layered market reality. Oiknine suggests that brokerages and developers who continue to rely on aggregate metrics may misread conditions, whereas those who adopt a more detailed, segmented framework will be better positioned to navigate Miami’s diverse luxury sub-markets.
